Sorry. Looks like you are correct, and the rush started 24 hours prior to desired. Luckily, the in-game decay warning was still accurate, so on Thursday it would have told you the proper amount of matches required to avoid decay, which was higher than normal.
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Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
P(a or b ... or z) = 1 - P(!a and !b ... and !z)
Probability
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