Random is a b*ch
Old 07-27-2015, 05:23 AM   #1
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Default Random is a b*ch

If I am right, I have a goldrush chance around 9.23%.

What kind of random generator is one, that does not hit into almost 10% for 35 fights?

Had same issue on Friday. Was about 40 fight w/o GR and finally I end up with my face on keyboard. My fights are 3.5 minutes long...

I know that on pick of 35 fights I have statistically a 5% "chance" of not occuring a goldrush, but please.... For me it's second day in a row O_o (I know there were saturday and sunday in between)

PHyeah, got one after 39th fight !

Last edited by yerg; 07-27-2015 at 05:39 AM..
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Old 07-27-2015, 06:41 AM   #2
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After running few simulations with php code, I have found that no matter on random generator, when having an 10% chance of event occuring, only ALMOST 10% will occur during first 40 draws.

Based on 10e^7 tries.

Longest streak was 157 draws without running into 10% condition to fire.

gl;hf
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Old 07-27-2015, 07:14 AM   #3
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cool story bro, tell it again when you get 2 or 3 rushes back to back
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Old 07-27-2015, 08:44 AM   #4
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trololol
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Old 07-27-2015, 08:58 AM   #5
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"Back to back" draws had most occurences. With like 100k per 10 million draws, giving it's single most, being 10% of all GR's. After first GR you can be sure, that:

Code:
10% chance  you will have a rush next fight,
58.7% chance you need 2-10 fights to get a rush,
30% chance you need more than 10, but less or equal to 40 fights to get GR,
1.3% chance you need more than 40 fights to get a rush.
PS: if you're using classic rand(), it's 50% less possible that you will have GR after your 30'th fight than after 29th or 31st due to a.. some kind of misbehaviour O_o At least in php

Last edited by yerg; 07-27-2015 at 09:02 AM..
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