Glitchless' sig
Old 02-06-2012, 12:05 AM   #1
Boss Hunter
 
Andressan's Avatar
 
Andressan is offline
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 196
Default Glitchless' sig

So I'm taking a basic statistics course and we are working with probabilities and it made me think of the formula in Glitch's signature (the probability of at least 1 of these occurring is P(A or B or....Z)=1-P(!A and !B and.....!Z)). I understand that the exclamation points are supposed to be taken to be symbols for 'not' as in not(A) etc...which means it's the chance of each to fail.

I learned in stats that the !A is called the compliment and that finding an 'and' as in 'both this and that' is found by multiplying the chances for 2 unique events. I learned of 2 rules for probabilities that are for the 'either/or' chances. First is the addition rule which is for mutually exclusive events and second is the general addition rule which is for non-mutually exclusive events, or, events which can intermingle. A 100% chance is a certain probability and a 0% chance is an impossible one. My instructor taught us that for the chances of either of 2 non-mutually exclusive events occurring the formula is P(A)+P(B)-P(A&B) where P(A&B) describes a time when both A&B occur.

For Glitch's formula I'm wondering if it applies to non-mutually exclusive events or to something else I haven't yet covered in stats. In other words I want to know if the general addition rule would apply, and, if it does, if this particular formula is just inclusive of all possible events (the chance of one or more of them occurring) making it a complete formula or if it's something else.

HALP MEH PLOX!
  Reply With Quote

Old 02-06-2012, 09:18 AM   #2
Administrator
 
Glitchless's Avatar
 
Glitchless is offline
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 8,569
Default

Both formulae should work for non-mutually exclusive events. Say event A has a 25% chance and event B has a 40% chance of occuring, the chance of at least one of them happening is:
Your way: .25 + .4 - (.25 * .4) = .55
My sig: 1 - (.75 * .6) = .55
__________________
Computing the probability that at least one of the following events will occur:
P(a or b ... or z) = 1 - P(!a and !b ... and !z)
Probability
  Reply With Quote

Old 02-06-2012, 11:36 AM   #3
Boss Hunter
 
Andressan's Avatar
 
Andressan is offline
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 196
Default

Thank you Glitchless
  Reply With Quote

Old 02-06-2012, 02:40 PM   #4
Roo
Temporarily Suspended
 
Roo is offline
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Canada
Posts: 829
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
Both formulae should work for non-mutually exclusive events. Say event A has a 25% chance and event B has a 40% chance of occuring, the chance of at least one of them happening is:
Your way: .25 + .4 - (.25 * .4) = .55
My sig: 1 - (.75 * .6) = .55
Hahaha, geek
  Reply With Quote
Reply



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:34 PM
Boards live since 05-21-2008