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I'm Serious about the 750k Prize- Screenie here
Old 01-08-2011, 06:45 PM   #1
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Default I'm Serious about the 750k Prize- Screenie here
Now do you believe me?
10k to enter, guess 1-100, guess right to get all equips, gold, and inventory, equal to over 750k.



Now that Gus is done trolling, let's show some maths.

If each game costs 10k, and the prize is 750k, in order to break even, i need 75 people to lose in a row. But, if I did pay the 750k, I would also lose my alt, Nibbles, whose OPness I value greatly.

Anyhow, I need 75 wins in a row in order to break even. So if this was a scam, I would need to make money.

For me to make money, I need to win 76 times in a row.

To win one time, I have a 99% chance.
2 times: .9801
3: 0.970299
4: 0.96059601
5: 0.9509900499
6: 0.941480149401
7: 0.93206534790699
8: 0.9227446944279201
9: 0.9135172474836409
10: 0.9043820750088045
11: 0.8953382542587164
12: 0.8863848717161293
13: 0.877521022998968
14: 0.8687458127689783
15: 0.8600583546412885
16: 0.8514577710948756
17: 0.8429431933839269
18: 0.8345137614500876
19: 0.8261686238355867
20: 0.8179069375972309
21: 0.8097278682212586
22: 0.801630589539046
23: 0.7936142836436555
24: 0.785678140807219
25: 0.7778213593991468
26: 0.7700431458051553
27: 0.7623427143471038
28: 0.7547192872036327
29: 0.7471720943315964
30: 0.7397003733882804
31: 0.7323033696543976
32: 0.7249803359578536
33: 0.7177305325982751
34: 0.7105532272722924
35: 0.7034476949995694
36: 0.6964132180495737
37: 0.689449085869078
38: 0.6825545950103872
39: 0.6757290490602833
40: 0.6689717585696805
41: 0.6622820409839837
42: 0.6556592205741439
43: 0.6491026283684024
44: 0.6426116020847184
45: 0.6361854860638712
46: 0.6298236312032325
47: 0.6235253948912002
48: 0.6172901409422882
49: 0.6111172395328653
50: 0.6050060671375367
51: 0.5989560064661613
52: 0.5929664464014997
53: 0.5870367819374847
54: 0.5811664141181098
55: 0.5753547499769287
56: 0.5696012024771594
57: 0.5639051904523878
58: 0.558266138547864
59: 0.5526834771623853
60: 0.5471566423907615
61: 0.5416850759668539
62: 0.5362682252071853
63: 0.5309055429551135
64: 0.5255964875255623
65: 0.5203405226503067
66: 0.5151371174238036
67: 0.5099857462495656
68: 0.5048858887870699
69: 0.4998370298991992
70: 0.4948386596002072
71: 0.4898902730042052
72: 0.4849913702741631
73: 0.4801414565714215
74: 0.4753400420057073
75: 0.4705866415856502
76: 0.4658807751697937

I have a 46% chance to win 76 times in a row, thus making a 10k profit. That's a horrible percentage. Less than half the time, I will make a profit. How is this a scam?


Next, let's go for prices. Prices indicated by * have been obtained from the lowest AH value. Other prices are given by the value at which a store will buy the item from you, or estimates from me or other players.

42k gold: 42k
Ladybug: 9k
13 Rare Quiver: 2k
19 Arrow: 1k
9 Epic Bow: 60k*
9 Epic Legging: 55k*
9 Epic Legging: 55k*
13 Rare Helm: 1k
13 Rare Arm: .5k
13 Rare Arm: .5k
13 Rare BP: 1.5k
22 Epic 2H Crusher: 110k*
25 Epic BP: 60k*
Rabbit: 45k*
Rabbit: 45k*
25 Epic Legging: 60k*- ah price is 70 but someone sold for 60 earlier
25 Epic Legging: 60k*
Chain Whip: 40k*
Chain Whip: 40k*
9 2H Epic Slasher: 55k*
25 Epic Sleeve: 50k
25 Epic Sleeve: 50k
25 Epic Helm: 55k
Potions: 28000 (replace chippy and int with gates)

Time to add that up!
42+9+2+1+60+55+55+1+.5+.5+1.5+110+60+45+45+60+60+4 0+40+55+50+50+55+28

Grand total: 925.5k

You're right, this was a ripoff. I was CHEATING MYSELF by nearly 200k.

So then, chance to win 93 in a row, in order to make a profit:
0.392711028. Less than 40%. Yeah. Definitely a scam.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
If they put a nice icon on you it's beneficial if they put a mean one on the other guy it's detrimental.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
The player was banned for using an exploit repeatedly without reporting it. There's only 1 proper way to profit off an exploit: report it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huggles
Old Delay/(1+haste%) = New Delay

For slow effects, use the slow % but as a negative.

Just repeat for multiple effects.

DO NOT multiply by 1+slow% to get your new delay. 1*1.4 is not the same as 1/0.6 and your answer will be wrong.
Last edited by Huggles; 01-08-2011 at 10:05 PM..
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Old 01-08-2011, 06:46 PM   #2
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F*cking scammer, who needs that crap?!
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Old 01-08-2011, 07:01 PM   #3
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I'm serious, what posses you to evaluate those 25 / 9 armour pieces at 750k total? are we back in like 2008? I wouldn't think all that junk is worth more than the 100k or so the stores would buy it for.
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Old 01-08-2011, 10:05 PM   #4
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bump. read post 1. has all info.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
If they put a nice icon on you it's beneficial if they put a mean one on the other guy it's detrimental.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
The player was banned for using an exploit repeatedly without reporting it. There's only 1 proper way to profit off an exploit: report it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huggles
Old Delay/(1+haste%) = New Delay

For slow effects, use the slow % but as a negative.

Just repeat for multiple effects.

DO NOT multiply by 1+slow% to get your new delay. 1*1.4 is not the same as 1/0.6 and your answer will be wrong.
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Old 01-08-2011, 10:27 PM   #5
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Huggles is super cereal about this prize.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h05YfP_8UsU
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Old 01-09-2011, 01:12 AM   #6
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You're obviously not Asian and don't know math.

Each attempt is a 1/100 chance to guess right. If you change the number in between guesses, then the attempt to get it right is still 1/100. Just like roulette, your chance of black or red is 47.3% each guess. If you get it wrong and guess black or red, it's still 47.3% to guess it correctly. If you bet red, red, red, red, red, you don't get a 97.7% chance of winning, each event is independent and is a scam.

Why do people not like you with such a friendly name? I don't see it.
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Old 01-09-2011, 01:29 AM   #7
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Old 01-09-2011, 05:30 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qtpie
You're obviously not Asian and don't know math.

Each attempt is a 1/100 chance to guess right. If you change the number in between guesses, then the attempt to get it right is still 1/100. Just like roulette, your chance of black or red is 47.3% each guess. If you get it wrong and guess black or red, it's still 47.3% to guess it correctly. If you bet red, red, red, red, red, you don't get a 97.7% chance of winning, each event is independent and is a scam.

Why do people not like you with such a friendly name? I don't see it.
It's not a scam because I don't need to win once, I need to win 93 times in a row in order to make a profit. Chance of that is 39%. So 39% chance to make profit. Not a scam.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
If they put a nice icon on you it's beneficial if they put a mean one on the other guy it's detrimental.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
The player was banned for using an exploit repeatedly without reporting it. There's only 1 proper way to profit off an exploit: report it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huggles
Old Delay/(1+haste%) = New Delay

For slow effects, use the slow % but as a negative.

Just repeat for multiple effects.

DO NOT multiply by 1+slow% to get your new delay. 1*1.4 is not the same as 1/0.6 and your answer will be wrong.
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Old 01-09-2011, 09:26 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qtpie
You're obviously not Asian and don't know math.

Each attempt is a 1/100 chance to guess right. If you change the number in between guesses, then the attempt to get it right is still 1/100. Just like roulette, your chance of black or red is 47.3% each guess. If you get it wrong and guess black or red, it's still 47.3% to guess it correctly. If you bet red, red, red, red, red, you don't get a 97.7% chance of winning, each event is independent and is a scam.

Why do people not like you with such a friendly name? I don't see it.
You might want to try and actually READ what she said there. Since each event is independent, you don't have a 30% , 40% or w/e random number you cough up at winning, you have a 99% chance of winning every time.

Obvious scam is obvious, I lol'd at the cereal thing btw, also BEWARE OF THE MANBEARPIG THREAT!~!!
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Old 01-12-2011, 08:12 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weirdgus
You might want to try and actually READ what she said there. Since each event is independent, you don't have a 30% , 40% or w/e random number you cough up at winning, you have a 99% chance of winning every time.

Obvious scam is obvious, I lol'd at the cereal thing btw, also BEWARE OF THE MANBEARPIG THREAT!~!!
i did read what she said. i do have a 99% chance to win every time. but my chance of winning enough times in a row to make a profit is less than 40%.


note this thread is no longer about the items, but the fact that too many idiots like gus don't know the first thing about statistics.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
If they put a nice icon on you it's beneficial if they put a mean one on the other guy it's detrimental.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitchless
The player was banned for using an exploit repeatedly without reporting it. There's only 1 proper way to profit off an exploit: report it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huggles
Old Delay/(1+haste%) = New Delay

For slow effects, use the slow % but as a negative.

Just repeat for multiple effects.

DO NOT multiply by 1+slow% to get your new delay. 1*1.4 is not the same as 1/0.6 and your answer will be wrong.
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